Fatma Köroğlu
PhD Candidate · Global Engineering & Resilience · University of Colorado Boulder
Fatma is a doctoral researcher at the Mortenson Center in Global Engineering at CU Boulder, where her research focuses on the intersection of carbon finance, agricultural water efficiency, and sustainable land management in Türkiye. Her work combines qualitative field research with multi-criteria decision analysis and techno-economic modeling to design scalable carbon-financed drip irrigation programs.
She has conducted 59 stakeholder interviews across 26 cities in Türkiye with farmers, irrigation unions, agricultural engineers, NGOs, distributors, and government officials. Her first PhD publication, co-authored with FAO Türkiye and the Turkish Ministry of Environment, proposes an MRV framework for carbon farming in Türkiye and was published in Sustainability (MDPI) in January 2026.
Fatma holds a BS in Management Engineering from Istanbul Technical University. Before her doctoral work, she contributed to USAID-funded water management projects in Armenia through the Mortenson Center.
This research investigates the feasibility and design of carbon-financed drip irrigation programs in Türkiye, addressing the intersection of agricultural water efficiency, greenhouse gas mitigation, and carbon credit markets. The work spans three interconnected research questions targeting adoption barriers, economic viability, and technical monitoring frameworks.
Agricultural Emissions & Carbon Farming in Türkiye
Agricultural emissions in Türkiye are mainly linked to livestock and soil-related activities. Enteric fermentation represents the largest share, followed by agricultural soils and manure management. By gas type, CH4 accounts for 59.1% of agricultural emissions, N2O for 38.8%, and CO2 for 2.2%.
In line with Türkiye's 2053 net-zero target, carbon farming presents a key opportunity to enhance carbon sequestration and reduce GHG emissions. Through improving soil organic matter accumulation and strengthening the natural carbon cycle, carbon farming simultaneously improves soil health, agricultural productivity, and climate resilience.
Research on carbon farming in Türkiye remains limited, though international studies on Mediterranean and semi-arid agroecosystems indicate that practices such as cover cropping and reduced tillage can substantially increase soil organic carbon stocks. Recent analyses point to the absence of a national carbon certification framework as a central policy gap.
The Carbon-Water Nexus
Irrigation accounts for 70% of global water withdrawals and 80–90% of water consumption. In Türkiye, optimizing irrigation is increasingly important to prevent groundwater depletion under rising water stress. Irrigation itself can be a source of GHG emissions through energy-intensive water pumping and increased soil-based N2O and CH4 emissions under saturated conditions.
However, the overall carbon footprint of irrigation can be reduced through more efficient water application. Key approaches include replacing fossil fuel-powered pumps with renewable energy systems, deploying drip irrigation, and optimizing water scheduling—collectively reducing CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions while maintaining soil organic carbon.
Carbon Farming Payment Models
Action-Based
Farmers compensated for adopting specific practices assumed to reduce emissions. Low monitoring costs but uncertain actual GHG reductions.
Result-Based
Rewards based on measured, verified carbon outcomes. More performance-oriented but depends on complex MRV systems and volatile carbon prices.
Hybrid
Combines upfront payments for implementation costs with additional rewards tied to verified reductions. Balances farmer risk with accountability.
RQ 1b: Which agricultural basins are most suitable to pilot and scale up carbon-financed irrigation programs in Türkiye?
Motivation
Despite their promise, irrigation-based carbon credit projects present notable challenges. Emissions reductions often rely on uncertain assumptions and may suffer from inaccurate accounting. Additional concerns include unclear impacts on water consumption and social inequities such as gender disparities and uneven benefit-sharing. A deeper understanding of regional factors—environmental, social, and economic—is essential for the long-term success of carbon farming initiatives.
Key Findings from Literature
Farmers generally perceive carbon farming positively due to benefits for soil health, productivity, and profitability. However, adoption is constrained by limited access to information, insufficient extension services, policy instability, and high upfront investment costs. Empirical studies among Turkish farmers indicate that adoption of climate-smart practices is shaped by perceived economic benefits, risk considerations, and access to extension services. Larger farms adopt innovations more readily, while smaller farms require tailored financial and technical support.
Preliminary results are consistent with studies in Spain, Italy, Tunisia, and Egypt highlighting the importance of peer imitation among farmers. Findings further indicate that incorporating yield guarantees into carbon credit programs has strong potential to reduce farmers' perceived risk.
Methodology
- Literature review of carbon finance mechanisms, irrigation practices, enablers and barriers
- Identification of opportunities and barriers specific to Türkiye with pre-screening of agricultural basins
- Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) framework using Fuzzy AHP for criteria weighting and Fuzzy TOPSIS for regional ranking
- DEMATEL and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping to explore relationships among criteria
- Mixed-integer programming for cross-method comparison
MCDM Criteria Framework (6 categories, 17 subcriteria)
- Infrastructure Suitability — irrigation system readiness, energy reliability
- Climate Suitability — water stress, irrigation abandonment risk, extreme weather risk
- Agricultural System Suitability — drip transition potential, crop rotation compatibility
- Socioeconomic & Behavioral Readiness — financial capacity, willingness to avoid deep tillage, willingness to reduce fertilizer, environmental awareness
- Operational Feasibility — farmer organizations/NGOs, land consolidation, irrigation technology market, lab proximity
- Social & Environmental Co-Benefits — social inclusion potential, environmental co-benefit potential
Motivation
The economic feasibility of carbon-financed drip irrigation programs depends not only on farmers' adoption of required practices but also on the cost-effectiveness of program designs for implementers aiming to attract and retain farmers. Selecting the optimal combination of contract attributes—including duration, required practice changes, payment structures, and guarantee mechanisms—requires systematic evaluation across multiple scenarios.
Understanding costs and benefits from the farmers' perspective enables estimation of adoption rates, supporting identification of the most economically viable and scalable program design.
Methodology
- Cost-benefit analysis of drip irrigation adoption and agricultural practice changes from the farmer perspective
- Life cycle cost analysis under different scenarios for program implementers
- Risk analysis, optimization, and program design implications
Contract Design Variables
- Contract duration and commitment periods
- Required practice changes (irrigation method, tillage, fertilizer optimization)
- Payment structures (action-based, result-based, hybrid)
- Guarantee and insurance mechanisms
- Yield guarantee provisions to reduce perceived farmer risk
Motivation
This question is closely linked to the economic feasibility addressed in RQ 2. Modeling soil carbon sequestration and N2O emissions is essential to determine the technical requirements and flexibility of contract designs under Verra VM0042 protocols. MRV considerations play a critical role in defining the appropriate frequency, granularity, and cost of data collection and verification to ensure the integrity and feasibility of carbon credit generation.
Methodology
- Modeling of N2O reduction and soil carbon sequestration under different scenarios
- Carbon credit generation simulation using Verra VM0042 protocols across different scenarios and practices
- MRV system design specifying monitoring frequency, data granularity, verification processes, and cost structures
Key MRV Considerations
- Additionality — demonstrating that reductions would not have occurred without the intervention
- Permanence — ensuring long-term carbon storage in soils
- Leakage — accounting for emissions displaced outside the project boundary
- Verification costs — balancing rigor with accessibility for small-scale farmers
- Alignment with Verra VM0042 methodology